Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
